The polycrisis and its demographic traces
The term polycrisis refers to the convergence of several mutually reinforcing shocks: the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated lockdowns, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, migration pressures, and the energy crisis. Each of these factors represents a burden in its own right – financial, emotional, and existential. Their combination creates an environment of pervasive uncertainty that has a direct impact on decisions about parenthood.
The research draws on data from the Czech Generations and Gender Survey (GGS-II), covering women aged 18–39 surveyed between 2020 and 2022. It tracks how short-term fertility intentions changed during this period – specifically, the intention to have a child within the next three years.
Tax reform as an economic impulse
In January 2021, a tax reform came into effect that abolished the calculation of personal income tax from the so-called super-gross wage. The result was a reduced tax burden and an increase in disposable income for most employees. The reform was intended as economic support during a period of recession, though it also drew criticism: its benefits accrued disproportionately to higher-income households, while the financial burden fell on the state budget.
What the data show
The findings reveal an overall decline in short-term fertility intentions across most educational and income groups. Women with higher socioeconomic status demonstrate greater demographic resilience in the long-term outlook, yet they also responded to the polycrisis with a more rapid revision of their plans.
The most striking exception is women in the highest income quartile. They were the only group that did not scale back their plans to have a child – on the contrary, they slightly increased those plans between 2020 and 2022. For them, the additional income resulting from the tax reform may have been an advantage that underscored their resilience in the face of socioeconomic crises.
Reform alone is not enough – but it can help
The research findings suggest that economic incentives have the potential to influence reproductive decision-making – particularly among groups with greater financial security, who appear better positioned to act on the additional income. At the same time, the findings make clear that no single measure is sufficient in a polycrisis environment. Different groups of women respond to crisis in different ways and adopt different adaptation strategies – from postponing parenthood to abandoning it altogether. For low-income households, financial uncertainty may be so deeply entrenched that modest tax savings alone are unlikely to shift reproductive intentions.
The research was presented on 13 March 2026 at the workshop Strengthening the Generations and Gender Programme Through Policy, Research, and Data-Driven Decision-Making in Eastern Europe. Darina Kmentová and Martin Kreidl are affiliated with the Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University.
