Planning a Child in a “Poly-crisis” Context
The years 2020–2022 were marked by the overlap of several major crises – the COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation, the war in Ukraine, and the energy crisis. This context, often described as a “poly-crisis,” significantly affected the economic and social conditions of households. At the same time, the Czech Republic experienced a sharp decline in birth rates.
The study focuses on how these developments influenced short-term fertility intentions among women aged 18–39 and whether responses differed across socio-economic groups.
Uncertainty Leads to Postponement
The research builds on the assumption that economic and emotional uncertainty may encourage adaptive strategies, such as postponing or reducing plans to have a child. Household resources – particularly income and education – play a key role in this process, as they can mitigate the impact of crises and enhance resilience.
Data and Methodology
The analysis uses data from the Contemporary Czech Family survey collected between 2020 and 2022. The sample includes 1,097 women aged 18–39.
Short-term fertility intentions were measured by asking respondents whether they intended to have a (next) child within the next three years, using a scale ranging from “definitely not” to “definitely yes.”
The study applies advanced statistical methods to estimate how the probability of planning a child changes over time and across different groups.
Declining Positive Intentions Across Society
The results reveal a clear pattern:
- a decline in positive fertility intentions,
- alongside a growing share of women who probably or definitely do not plan to have a child.
This trend appears consistent across educational and income groups, suggesting that the impact of the crises affected a broad spectrum of society.
Income Differences: Delayed Responses Among the Better-off
At the same time, important differences emerge:
- the highest-income households show a delayed response,
- women in the lowest-income group do not exhibit a comparable absolute decline in intentions between 2020 and 2022.
A particularly notable finding is a reversal in the ranking of income groups:
- in 2020, the highest fertility intentions were observed among women in the lowest-income households,
- by 2022, the highest intentions were found among women in the highest-income households.
Fertility Intentions as an Indicator of Household Resilience
The research provides important insights into how households respond to uncertainty and crisis situations. While the overall trend points toward postponing parenthood, the findings highlight the role of available resources and the ability of households to adapt to changing conditions.
Fertility intentions thus serve as a sensitive indicator of broader social and economic dynamics.
The research was conducted as part of the project “On Our Own: Opportunities and Risks in the Individualization of Society (PRINS),” co-financed by the European Union, and draws on data from the project Contemporary Czech Family, provided by the research infrastructure “Czech National Node for Family Research,” supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic (project no. LM2024074). Both Martin Kreidl and Darina Kmentová are affiliated with the Department of Sociology at the Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University.
